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New York (2-1) at Portland (1-1)
- When: May 14 2026, 10:00 PM
- Where: Moda Center, Portland, OR, USA
- TV: Amazon Prime Video
New York vs Portland Preview & Prediction
Spread: New York -11.5
Moneyline: New York (-675)
Total: 176.5
Portland Fire Betting Preview
Nobody expected the Portland Fire to deliver one of the wildest endings of the young WNBA season, but Tuesday night turned into instant franchise history.
Portland Fire stunned New York 98-96 after Sarah Ashlee Barker grabbed a missed shot and scored the game-winning basket at the buzzer. The sequence capped a massive offensive performance from Portland, which played with pace, confidence, and zero fear against one of the league’s elite teams.
The Fire shot 50 percent from the floor and knocked down 15 three-pointers while completely exposing New York’s defensive lapses throughout the night. Portland’s bench became the biggest surprise. The Fire dominated reserve production 32-11, with Kamiah Smalls providing a huge spark offensively with 13 points.
That second-unit energy completely changed the flow of the matchup.
What makes Portland dangerous entering Thursday is confidence. Young teams can become extremely unpredictable once they realize they can compete with championship-level opponents. The Fire forced 18 New York turnovers and converted those mistakes into 25 points, constantly turning defense into transition opportunities.
The challenge now becomes consistency. It is one thing to surprise a short-handed opponent once. Doing it again against a focused Liberty team becomes much tougher.
Still, Portland clearly proved it can push tempo and stretch defenses with perimeter shooting.
Fire Player Prop Pick: Sarah Ashlee Barker Over 11.5 Points
Barker’s confidence should remain sky-high after Tuesday’s game-winner, and Portland will continue leaning on her aggressive scoring mentality.
New York Liberty Betting Preview
The Liberty enter Thursday in bounce-back mode after suffering their first real defensive collapse of the season.
New York Liberty still managed 96 points Tuesday despite missing both Sabrina Ionescu and Satou Sabally, but defensive mistakes and turnovers completely changed the outcome late.
New York’s starters carried an enormous workload because of the limited bench production. All five starters reached double figures, led by Pauline Astier with 24 points. However, Astier’s late three-second violation ultimately helped set up Portland’s dramatic finish.
Coach Chris DeMarco defended his team afterward, emphasizing the overall mistakes throughout the game rather than focusing on one isolated play.
The biggest issue for New York was transition defense and ball security. The Liberty looked uncomfortable against Portland’s pace, repeatedly allowing open perimeter looks and easy scoring opportunities after turnovers.
Expect those areas to become the main focus entering Thursday’s rematch.
Despite Tuesday’s loss, New York still possesses the deeper starting lineup and more reliable half-court offense. If the Liberty clean up the turnovers and improve defensively around the arc, this matchup could look very different.
The betting market still trusts New York heavily for good reason. Championship-caliber teams usually respond strongly after embarrassing defensive performances.
Liberty Player Prop Pick: Pauline Astier Over 12.5 Points
Astier played aggressively throughout Tuesday’s matchup and should continue handling a major offensive role with key injuries still impacting the lineup.
WNBA Final Score & Expert Prediction
Portland deserves major respect after Tuesday’s upset, but backing the Fire to repeat that performance against an angry Liberty squad feels dangerous.
New York’s experience, offensive balance, and likely defensive adjustments should create a much stronger overall effort Thursday night. The Liberty probably tighten up defensively while slowing Portland’s transition opportunities significantly.
The Fire should still compete offensively at home, but New York’s urgency and talent edge eventually take over.
Final Score: Liberty 92, Fire 78
Lean: New York Liberty -11.5
Total: Under 176.5
- NBA Playoffs Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
