Philadelphia (13-10) at NY Mets (16-7)
- When: Apr 22 2025, 7:10 PM
- Where: Citi Field, Flushing, Queens
- Where to watch: SNY
MLB Expert Betting Breakdown – Mets vs. Phillies
Moneyline Favorite: Philadelphia -138 | Total: 8.0
New York Mets Outlook & Betting Angle
The red-hot New York Mets head into Tuesday’s clash against Philadelphia with momentum and swagger, thanks in large part to the recent fireworks from Francisco Lindor. The Mets (tied for MLB’s best record) secured a 5-4 win in the opener of this three-game set, pushing their winning streak to five games. Lindor has been the centerpiece—launching two home runs on Monday, including a crucial three-run shot in the seventh.
He now has four homers in his last four games and is riding a major hot streak, going 5-for-8 with three walks in his last two outings. Bettors looking for value in player props may want to consider the over on Lindor total bases or even another home run at plus odds while he’s in this kind of rhythm.
Griffin Canning (2-1, 3.43 ERA) will take the mound for New York and is coming off a stellar outing in which he struck out eight over six innings against the Cardinals. While he has limited exposure to the Phillies, Canning’s recent command and swing-and-miss stuff make him a solid candidate for strikeout props. Expect a competitive outing that keeps the Mets in the mix.
Best Mets Player Prop Picks:
Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 Total Bases
Griffin Canning Over 4.5 Strikeouts
Philadelphia Phillies Preview & Betting Angle
The Phillies come into this matchup aiming to bounce back after back-to-back losses, with their bullpen struggles once again coming under the microscope. Starter Cristopher Sanchez (2-0, 2.96 ERA) gets the ball and has quietly been one of the more reliable arms in the Philly rotation. He’s coming off a 12-strikeout gem vs. the Giants and has a solid track record against the Mets.
Philadelphia’s bullpen, however, continues to be a liability. Despite strong showings from Matt Strahm and Tanner Banks, the unit carries a bloated 5.80 ERA and has already blown six saves this season. Jordan Romano’s 15.26 ERA has especially hurt. These late-inning struggles could tilt value toward live betting the Mets if the game stays close through the middle innings.
On the offensive side, the Phillies need more consistency outside of Bryce Harper and Trea Turner. If they want to justify their favorite status, timely hitting and keeping Lindor in check are non-negotiable.
Best Phillies Player Prop Picks:
Cristopher Sanchez Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases
Prediction & Pick
The Mets are clicking offensively, riding a wave of momentum led by Lindor and supported by a steady rotation. While Sanchez has pitched well, the Phillies’ shaky bullpen makes it tough to trust them as favorites. With New York’s form and late-inning power, the value lies in the road dog.
Final Score Prediction: Mets 5, Phillies 4
Best Bets: Mets +115 ML
Total: Over 8.0 (-110)
Prop Bet: Lindor to Record a Home Run (+500 odds)
Ride the hot bat and back the Mets to take Game 2.
- MLB Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
