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UFC Sao Paulo Best Picks and Predictions (November 4, 2023)

Looking for the best picks and predictions for UFC Sao Paulo on November 4, 2023? Get all the expert insights and analysis for this highly anticipated event. Find out who our experts are taking for this fight night events.

UFC-Sao-Paulo

Updated November 11th, 2023 (10:15pm ET)

Rodolfo Vieira vs Armen Petrosyan

  • UFC Sao Paulo
  • Ibirapuera Gymnasium in Sao Paulo, Brazil
  • Saturday, November 4, 2023

Don’t miss the exciting showdown between Rodolfo Vieira and Armen Petrosyan at UFC Sao Paulo on Saturday, November 4, 2023. The moneyline odds for this bout currently stand at -110 for both fighters.

Rodolfo Vieira, with a record of 9-2-0, is a 34-year-old middleweight standing at 6’0″ and weighing 185 lbs. Armen “Superman” Petrosyan, on the other hand, is a 32-year-old middleweight standing at 6’3″ and weighing 185 lbs. Both fighters have impressive records of 9-2-0. Vieira has a reach of 73″ while Petrosyan has a reach of 71″. In terms of striking, Vieira lands an average of 3.36 significant strikes per minute, with a striking accuracy of 54%, while Petrosyan lands an average of 5.97 significant strikes per minute, with a striking accuracy of 52%. Defensively, Vieira allows 4.84 significant strikes per minute, with a defense rate of 48%, while Petrosyan allows 3.03 significant strikes per minute, with a defense rate of 56%.

UFC Sao Paulo Rodolfo Vieira Armen Petrosyan
Opening Odds -110 -110
Record 9-2-0 9-2-0
Average Fight Time 8:47 12:53
Height 6’0″ 6’3″
Weight 185 lbs 185 lbs
Reach 73″ 71″
Strikes Landed Per Minute 3.36 5.97
Striking Accuracy 54% 52%

In terms of grappling, Vieira has a higher success rate, landing an average of 3.70 takedowns per 3 rounds, with a takedown accuracy of 26% and a takedown defense of 85%. Petrosyan, on the other hand, lands 33% of his takedown attempts and has a takedown defense of 36%. Vieira also has an advantage in submission attempts, with an average of 1.4 submission attempts per 15 minutes compared to Petrosyan’s 0.5 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

In his last fight, Rodolfo Vieira secured a victory over Cody Brundage by submitting him with an arm triangle in the second round. Vieira landed 30 of 37 total strikes, with a significant strike accuracy of 66%. Brundage, on the other hand, landed 20 of 29 significant strikes. Vieira’s striking accuracy was 67% for strikes aimed at the head. In Armen Petrosyan’s last bout, he defeated Christian Leroy Duncan by unanimous decision in the third round. Petrosyan landed 89 of 156 significant strikes, with a significant strike accuracy of 57%, while Duncan landed 59 of 122 significant strikes.

Other fights to watch on the card include Ismael Bonfim vs Vinc Pichel and Esteban Ribovics vs Elves Brener. Bonfim is aiming to add another win to his impressive record of 19-4-0, while Pichel has a record of 14-3-0. Ribovics boasts a record of 12-1-0 and will be facing off against Brener, who has a record of 15-3-0. Both fights promise to deliver thrilling action.

The Pick: Rodolfo Vieira (-110).

Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook (USA), Bodog Sportsbook (Canada)

Gabriel Bonfim vs Nicolas Dalby

  • UFC Sao Paulo
  • Ibirapuera Gymnasium in Sao Paulo, Brazil
  • Saturday, November 4, 2023

Gabriel Bonfim and Nicolas Dalby will face off in the Octagon at UFC Sao Paulo on Saturday, November 4, 2023. Currently, the odds favor Bonfim at -575, while Dalby is the underdog at +425.

Gabriel “Marretinha” Bonfim, with a perfect career record of 15-0-0, will be looking to continue his winning streak. Bonfim, 26 years old, weighs 170 lbs and stands at 6’1″. On the other side, Nicolas “Danish Dynamite” Dalby aims to add a victory to his record of 22-4-1 (2 NC). Dalby, 38 years old, is 5’11” and also weighs 170 lbs. In terms of significant strikes, Bonfim connects on 6.08 per minute, while Dalby connects on 3.93 per minute. Bonfim has a striking accuracy of 37% compared to Dalby’s 43%. Defensively, Bonfim absorbs 4.80 significant strikes per minute, while Dalby absorbs 3.39. Bonfim also has a higher defense rate, stopping 66% of strikes against him compared to Dalby’s 52% defense rate.

Based on their previous performances, Bonfim seems to have the upper hand. In his last fight against Trevin Giles, Bonfim secured a quick victory with a guillotine choke in round 1. While Giles landed only 1 significant strike out of 5 attempts, Bonfim was able to connect with 3 significant strikes out of 11 attempts. In contrast, Dalby’s last fight against Muslim Salikhov ended in a unanimous decision victory in round 3. Dalby landed 86 of 140 significant strikes, giving him a striking accuracy of 61%. Salikhov, on the other hand, landed 57 of 88 significant strikes.

Keep an eye on other exciting fights happening at UFC Sao Paulo. Rodrigo Nascimento will face Don’Tale Mayes, and Caio Borralho will go up against Abus Magomedov. These matchups promise great action and intense competition. Nascimento and Mayes will showcase their grappling skills, while Borralho and Magomedov will battle it out in striking exchanges.

The Pick: Nicolas Dalby +425

Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook (USA), Bodog Sportsbook (Canada)

Check out Daily Picks at Handicappers Edge

Caio Borralho vs Abus Magomedov

  • UFC Sao Paulo
  • Ibirapuera Gymnasium in Sao Paulo, Brazil
  • Saturday, November 4, 2023

Don’t miss the thrilling matchup between Caio Borralho and Abus Magomedov at UFC Sao Paulo on Saturday, November 4, 2023. Borralho is the early favorite with odds of -250, while Magomedov is the underdog at +205.

Caio Borralho, known as “The Natural,” boasts an impressive record of 14-1-0 (1 NC). The 30-year-old fighter stands at 5’10” and weighs 185 lbs. With a reach of 75″, Borralho relies on his southpaw stance to dominate his opponents. On the other hand, Abus Magomedov, standing at 6’2″ and weighing 185 lbs, will be looking to add another win to his record of 25-5-1. Magomedov’s arm span is measured at 78″. When it comes to significant strikes, Borralho lands an average of 2.59 per minute, while Magomedov connects with 5.60 significant strikes per minute. Borralho’s striking accuracy stands at an impressive 61%, while Magomedov’s accuracy is at 50%. In terms of defense, Borralho absorbs 1.86 significant strikes per minute, compared to Magomedov’s 8.39. Borralho defends 59% of the significant strikes aimed at him, while Magomedov thwarts 57% of them.

UFC Sao PauloCaio BorralhoAbus Magomedov
Opening Odds-250+205
Record14-1-0 (1 NC)25-5-1
Average Fight Time11:244:50
Height5’10”6’2″
Weight185 lbs185 lbs
Reach75″78″
Strikes Landed Per Minute2.595.60
Striking Accuracy61%50%

When it comes to grappling, Caio Borralho has the upper hand with an average of 2.63 takedowns per 15 minutes. He successfully finishes 66% of his takedown attempts and prevents 57% of takedown attempts against him. On the other hand, Magomedov manages to take his opponents down in 50% of his attempts and defends against 15% of takedown attempts against him. In terms of submissions, Borralho is the more skilled fighter, attempting an average of 0.7 finishes per 15 minutes, while Magomedov aims for 0.3 finishes per 15 minutes.

In his last fight, Caio Borralho faced Michal Oleksiejczuk and emerged victorious with a rear naked choke in the second round. Oleksiejczuk landed 30 of 65 total strikes, while Borralho connected with 52 of 74 total strikes. In terms of significant strikes, Oleksiejczuk’s accuracy stood at 46%, landing 13 of 44 strikes to the head. Borralho connected on 61% of his significant strikes, with 19 of 37 aimed at the head. The majority of significant strikes for both fighters were landed at distance, with Oleksiejczuk landing 86% and Borralho landing 52% at distance.

In Abus Magomedov’s last fight, he faced Sean Strickland and was defeated in the second round by a head punch while on the ground. Strickland connected on 82% of his significant strikes at distance, while Magomedov landed 100% of his significant strikes from distance. Magomedov connected with 47 of 101 significant strikes attempted, with 21 of 68 aimed at the head. Strickland landed 81 of 188 significant strikes, with 80 of them aimed at the head. Overall, Strickland landed 81 of 188 total strikes, while Magomedov connected with 47 of 101 total strikes.

The Pick: Caio Borralho (-250)

Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook (USA), Bodog Sportsbook (Canada)

Jailton Almeida vs Derrick Lewis

Jailton Almeida, also known as “Malhadinho,” will be going head-to-head with Derrick Lewis at UFC Sao Paulo on Saturday, November 4, 2023. Almeida is the favorite with an opening line of -188, while Lewis is priced at +360.

May 13, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Jailton Almeida (blue gloves) reacts after defeating Jairzinho Rozenstruik (red gloves) in a heavyweight bout during UFC Fight Night at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

Almeida, a 32-year-old fighter with a record of 19-2-0, will be competing in the light heavyweight division at 205 lbs. Standing at 6’3″ tall, he fights in the orthodox stance and has a reach of 79″. On the other side, Lewis, known as “The Black Beast,” measures the same height at 6’3″ and weighs in at 260 lbs. Also an orthodox fighter, he holds a record of 27-11-0 (1 NC) and has a reach of 79″.

In terms of significant strikes, Almeida connects with an average of 3.81 per minute, while Lewis lands 2.60 significant strikes per minute. Almeida has a higher accuracy, connecting with 64% of his attempted significant strikes compared to Lewis’s 50%. In terms of defense, Almeida absorbs 0.30 significant strikes per minute, while Lewis takes in 2.59. Almeida also has a slightly lower defense percentage, stopping 25% of his opponents’ significant strikes, while Lewis stops 41% of shots thrown his way.

UFC Sao PauloJailton AlmeidaDerrick Lewis
Opening Odds-188+360
Record19-2-027-11-0 (1 NC)
Average Fight Time5:058:30
Height6’3″6’3″
Weight205 lbs260 lbs
Reach79″79″
Strikes Landed Per Minute3.812.60
Striking Accuracy64%50%

When it comes to takedowns, Jailton Almeida demonstrates more efficiency as he successfully takes his opponents down to the mat an average of 6.40 times per 15 minutes. Almeida has a success rate of 68% in executing takedowns and manages to defend against 50% of takedown attempts against him. On the other hand, Lewis scores takedowns on only 28% of his attempts and prevents 52% of takedowns attempted by his opponents. In terms of submission attempts, Almeida proves to be more skilled, going for an average of 2.5 submissions per 15 minutes, while Lewis attempts 0.8 submissions in the same time frame.

In his previous fight against Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Almeida secured a victory in the first round by using a rear naked choke. Rozenstruik managed to land only 3 out of 6 total strikes thrown in the fight, while Almeida landed 14 out of 19 total strikes. Specifically, Rozenstruik failed to land any significant strikes, resulting in a 0% accuracy rate. As for Almeida, he achieved a 57% accuracy rate, connecting with 4 out of 7 significant strikes. Out of those, 3 strikes were aimed at the head. In terms of distance, 33% of Rozenstruik’s significant strikes and none of Almeida’s significant strikes connected.

In Derrick Lewis’s last bout against Marcos Rogerio de Lima, he secured a victory in the first round by delivering a punch to the head while on the ground. Lima had a 0% accuracy rate in landing significant strikes from a distance, while Lewis connected on 5% of his attempts. Lewis had a 51% accuracy rate overall, landing 17 out of 33 significant strikes. Out of those, 16 strikes were directed at the head. Lima managed to land 1 out of 1 significant strike. Specifically, it was directed at the head. In terms of total strikes, Lima connected on 2 out of 2, while Lewis landed 20 out of 36.

The Pick: Jailton Almeida (-188)

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