Milwaukee (36-27) at Indiana (35-28)
- When: Mar 11 2025, 7:30 PM
- Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN, USA
- TV: TNT
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers: Betting Preview & Predictions
Milwaukee Bucks (-3)
The Bucks are looking to bounce back after dropping two straight at home, falling to the Orlando Magic (111-109) and Cleveland Cavaliers (112-100). Before that, Milwaukee had been on a hot streak, winning eight of nine. Now, with playoff positioning on the line, they need a response.
One key issue for Milwaukee during their recent losses has been poor ball movement, which coach Doc Rivers has been vocal about:
“You don’t win when the ball stops. I don’t care who it is — ball movement, trust, it uplifts your entire team,” Rivers said.
Milwaukee has struggled against elite teams this season, going 0-9 against the Cavaliers, Celtics, and Knicks. However, the Bucks have dominated Indiana, winning both prior matchups this season:
- Nov. 22: 129-117 in Milwaukee
- Dec. 31: 120-112 in Indiana
In the most recent meeting, Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 30 points and 12 rebounds, while Brook Lopez added 16. If Milwaukee secures another win, they would clinch the season series and a potential playoff tiebreaker.
On the injury front, Milwaukee will be missing Bobby Portis (suspension) and Chris Livingston (illness). Giannis (calf) and Damian Lillard (groin) are probable, while Pat Connaughton (calf) is questionable.
Indiana Pacers (+3)
The Pacers are reeling, coming off a third straight loss on Monday night, falling 121-103 to Chicago without Tyrese Haliburton (hip flexor strain). Coach Rick Carlisle pulled his starters early as the game got out of hand, especially in the second quarter when Indiana was outscored 40-21.
“The second quarter killed us. We’re inconsistent… Our main guys have got to do better. And I’ve got to do better,” Carlisle said.
Haliburton’s status remains uncertain, though Carlisle said before the Bulls game that he is close to returning. Without their floor general, Indiana has struggled to create offense and maintain tempo.
Statistically, the Pacers excel in transition and efficiency:
3rd in overall field-goal percentage (48.9%)
Tied for 2nd in average speed (4.4 mph)
However, Milwaukee’s size and perimeter shooting (3rd in 3PT% at 38.3%) could create problems for Indiana’s defense, especially if Haliburton remains sidelined.
Betting Analysis & Predictions
Spread: Bucks -3 (Milwaukee has dominated Indiana this season and is looking to bounce back)
Total: Over 234.5 (Both teams play fast and have offensive firepower, even with injuries)
Best Bets:
Milwaukee -3 (Bucks have covered both matchups vs. Indiana this season and need a bounce-back win)
Over 234.5 Points (Two fast-paced teams that can light up the scoreboard, especially if Haliburton plays)
The Bucks need a response, and Giannis & Lillard should take over against a Pacers team that has been sliding. With Indiana’s inconsistency and Milwaukee’s history of success in this matchup, expect the Bucks to cover and take control of the season series.
- NBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
