Boston (17-15) at Toronto (14-16)
- When: May 1 2025, 7:07 PM
- Where: Rogers Centre, Toronto
- Where to watch: NESN
Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview
Moneyline Favorite: Boston -113 | Total: 8.5
Toronto Blue Jays Outlook & Betting Insight
The Blue Jays clawed their way back from a six-run deficit in Game 2 to stun Boston in extra innings, showing a flash of the offensive firepower they’ve lacked during their recent slump. Now they aim to ride that momentum into Thursday’s rubber match.
Starter Spotlight: José Berríos (1-1, 4.24 ERA)
Berríos has a history of solid outings against the Red Sox, including a dominant April 7 start in which he allowed just one run over seven innings. He’s 5-6 lifetime vs Boston with a 3.66 ERA. Expect the Jays to lean on him heavily to cool off Boston’s bats.
Key Player Props to Watch:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – Look for value in total bases markets, as he’s been swinging with more aggression, and his heads-up base running helped spark Tuesday’s win.
Alejandro Kirk – With a walk-off hit in Game 2 and a homer earlier, consider his RBI or hit props if you can find plus value.
Prediction: Blue Jays -107 (Moneyline)
While Boston is the slight favorite, Toronto’s energy and favorable pitching matchup give them value on the moneyline, especially in a tight game.
Boston Red Sox Breakdown & Prop Value
The Red Sox appeared to have Tuesday’s game in the bag until Toronto’s power surge and a few defensive miscues derailed them late. Still, their recent play has included strong starts and consistent hitting, with some positives to take into the finale.
Starter Spotlight: Tanner Houck (0-2, 7.58 ERA)
While Houck has struggled overall this season, his previous outing against Toronto was a bright spot — one run over 6 2/3 innings. He owns a respectable 3.09 ERA against the Jays in his career.
Key Player Props to Watch:
Alex Bregman – Riding a 10-game hit streak, Bregman is red-hot. His total bases or hit props are worth a look.
Tanner Houck – If books post a strikeout line around 5.5, the over may offer value given his solid control in previous outings vs Toronto.
Prediction: Total Over 8.5
With both teams showing recent offensive life and a shaky Boston bullpen, this game has the potential to eclipse the total.
Final Betting Pick
Lean: Over 8.5 (-115)
Slight Edge: Toronto Blue Jays (-107)
Final Score Prediction: Blue Jays 5, Red Sox 4
- MLB Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
