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Boston (38-19) at Denver (36-22)
- When: Feb 25 2026, 10:00 PM
- Where: Ball Arena, Denver, CO, USA
- TV: ESPN
Boston vs Denver Preview & Prediction
Spread: Denver -3.5
Moneyline: Denver (-165)
Total: 228.5
Boston Celtics Betting Preview
Boston heads into Denver riding momentum, but the handicap hinges on one name: Jaylen Brown. He is averaging 29.2 points and 7.0 rebounds per game and is listed day to day with a right knee contusion. If he is limited or ruled out, that shifts both the spread and the total in a meaningful way.
The Celtics have quietly become one of the toughest defensive units in the league, allowing 108.0 points per game, best in the Eastern Conference. Over the last two outings, they have held opponents under 90 points twice. That is not random variance. Joe Mazzulla has this group locked into role definition. Neemias Queta, Jordan Walsh and Baylor Scheierman are doing the dirty work: rebounding, contesting, sprinting to corners, defending without fouling. That is how you survive without Jayson Tatum, who remains sidelined after last year’s Achilles tear.
Boston has won four straight and nine of its last 10. They are 12-3 since Jan. 19 and playing with a defensive edge that travels. The first meeting with Denver resulted in a 114-110 loss, and that came with Nikola Jokic sidelined. Revenge angle? You bet.
From a betting standpoint, Denver laying 3.5 suggests Brown’s status is baked into the number. If Brown plays, I see value on the Celtics catching points in what profiles as a half-court chess match.
Player Prop: Derrick White Over 6.5 Assists
If Brown is limited, White’s usage and playmaking spike. Even if Brown plays, White has become Boston’s connective tissue. Against Denver’s compromised perimeter defense, he should facilitate at a high rate.
Denver Nuggets Betting Preview
Denver is favored by 3.5 with a total of 228.5, and that total feels modest when you factor in Nikola Jokic. The reigning MVP candidate has 21 triple doubles this season and five in his last seven games. He is operating at peak efficiency, regardless of who is available around him.
The Nuggets have slipped into fourth in the West after dropping two of three out of the break. They are still without Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson, both dealing with hamstring injuries. That matters defensively. Those two are their best wing stoppers, and without them Denver has struggled to contain athletic scorers.
Still, Jokic is the equalizer. When he is healthy and orchestrating, Denver’s offense hums. His ability to score, pass and control tempo makes them dangerous at home, particularly at altitude.
The 228.5 total feels balanced. Boston’s defense can slow pace, but Jokic can dictate matchups. If Denver pushes tempo early, this game creeps toward the over.
Player Prop: Nikola Jokic Over 26.5 Points
Boston’s scheme often prioritizes limiting supporting cast damage. That leaves Jokic to shoulder more scoring. In a marquee matchup at home, I expect him to assert himself offensively.
NBA Final Score & Expert Prediction
If Brown suits up, Boston’s defensive identity and recent form make them live outright. Even if he is limited, the Celtics’ structure keeps this within a possession. Denver’s injuries on the wing reduce their margin for error defensively.
This projects as a playoff-style game decided late. Boston’s defensive discipline and ball movement give them just enough edge to cover and potentially steal it.
Final Score: Boston 114, Denver 112
Lean: Boston ML (+140)
Total: Under 228.5
- NBA Basketball Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
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