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Minnesota (0-1) at Phoenix (1-1)
- When: May 12 2026, 10:00 PM
- Where: Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ, USA
- TV: Victory+
Minnesota vs Phoenix Preview & Prediction
Spread: Phoenix -4.0
Moneyline: Phoenix (-185)
Total: 170.0
Phoenix Mercury Betting Breakdown
The Mercury laying -4.0 with a total of 170.0, return home feeling much better about themselves after splitting their opening back-to-back road set. While Sunday’s 95-79 loss to Golden State exposed some issues with turnovers and consistency, Phoenix still carries momentum from its stunning 99-66 blowout victory over Las Vegas the night before.
That dominant win over the defending champions looked like a statement performance from a team that believes it can become a serious contender this season.
Alyssa Thomas continues driving everything offensively for Phoenix. Thomas nearly posted a triple-double Sunday with 19 points, 11 assists, and nine rebounds, although six turnovers showed the danger of asking her to create nearly every possession. Still, her leadership and versatility remain the foundation of this offense.
The Mercury are also getting strong contributions from role players. Natasha Mack completely controlled the glass against Las Vegas with 15 rebounds, while rookie perimeter scorer Jovana Nogic has emerged quickly as an offensive weapon. Nogic is averaging 17.5 points per game and helping reduce the scoring pressure on veteran guard Kahleah Copper.
Copper’s game has evolved into more of a playmaking role early this season. While her scoring numbers are slightly down from last year, her ball movement and court vision have noticeably improved within Phoenix’s offensive structure.
The Mercury appear more connected offensively compared to last season, and home court should only strengthen that confidence entering Tuesday night.
Minnesota Lynx Betting Breakdown
Even in defeat, the Lynx discovered a major reason for optimism in their season opener.
Olivia Miles looked completely comfortable in her WNBA debut despite entering the league with massive expectations as the No. 2 overall draft pick. Miles scored 21 points while adding eight assists, two steals, and two blocks in a narrow 91-90 loss against Atlanta.
What stood out most was her poise. She avoided foul trouble, attacked aggressively, and converted all eight free throws while becoming only the fifth player in league history to record at least 20 points and five assists in a WNBA debut.
Minnesota clearly trusts Miles to run the offense immediately, and her confidence gives this team a dangerous long-term ceiling.
The challenge now becomes handling a much more experienced Phoenix roster on the road. The Lynx showed flashes offensively against Atlanta, but defensive consistency and late-game execution remain question marks for such a young group.
Phoenix also presents difficult matchup problems because of its physicality and veteran leadership. Miles could spend large stretches defending Copper, which will test her defensively throughout the night.
Minnesota has enough talent to stay competitive offensively, but containing Phoenix’s ball movement and transition opportunities may become difficult over four quarters.
WNBA Prediction & Betting Picks
Phoenix feels like the more stable and complete team entering this matchup, especially at home after gaining confidence from its huge win over Las Vegas.
Minnesota’s young core should continue improving quickly behind Olivia Miles, but road games against experienced teams are rarely easy early in the season.
The Mercury’s veteran playmaking, rebounding edge, and improved offensive chemistry give Phoenix the advantage in this spot.
The total of 170.0 feels slightly low considering both teams have shown the ability to push pace offensively.
Final Score: Mercury 91, Lynx 83
Lean: Phoenix -4.0
Total: Over 170.0
- NBA Playoffs Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
